US Elections are Vulnerable

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A cyberattack on the U.K.'s Labour Party, ahead of December elections, is a reminder that the favorite hobby of autocratic foreign regimes, like Russia, is attacking institutions in democratic countries. It's a reminder that there is less than a year before the presidential election in the U.S., and that Moscow Mitch McConnell continues to refuse to bring up House-passed legislation to protect our elections.

The rewards for McConnell could be great. One, he'll need all the help he can get keeping Republicans in power after Nov. 3, 2020. But there's a much more direct benefit for him: campaign contributions from the two dominant elections systems who are also vendor lobbyists, placing thousands of dollars into RED Republican election campaigns. This should be outlawed, and is definitely unethical. But what do Republicans care about ethics?

Election Systems & Software (ES&S) and Dominion Voting Systems, such as those he got this summer, just before he blocked votes on the House bills. Together, these companies produce about 80% of the voting systems used in the U.S. One of them, ES&S, is the nation's largest voting systems vendor and has provided about half of all systems in use in the country.

ES&S also has an extremely troubling record. It was the system in use in Georgia in 2018 when more than 150,000 ballots cast didn't register votes in a single office, that of lieutenant governor. In Indiana's Johnson County, the brand-new machines malfunctioned to a degree that officials couldn't figure out whether some people had voted multiple times. The county scrapped its contract with ES&S and had to fork out more than $1.5 million to entirely replace its equipment. The problems in ES&S' systems aren't limited to the most recent election, though. Back in 2006, its machines in Florida caused around 18,000 votes to disappear.

From my own experience, I can say that it is easy for an amateur hacker to find a backdoor into a voting machine as long as it is on the internet. hack into the html and change votes. Every time a Democrat or Republican hit the button to vote on the party line, the votes could be selectively switched to the other party. Or the votes for an opponent could be electronically, via html coding, selectively switched. However, the Russians are not amateurs. They are far more sophisticated in the attacks on our selected voting systems.

I taught a graduate course in global business in which I had four Chinese students (sponsored indirectly by the Chinese government). They had near native capability in English language and excellent computer skills. I am not sure what happened with them after they returned to China, but it is a known fact that the Chinese view hacking American corporate businesses for blueprints, schematics, instructions, of American products as a normal business practice.

North Korean hackers have bee successful in a acquiring money from southeast asian and other banking institutions by inserting their own code. Almost undetectable, it takes pennies out of millions of accounts per month from banks now anywhere in the world, and delivers them to a dummy bank set up by the North Koreans. This might seem penny anty, but it amounts to billions of dollars if converted to US currency.

Internet hacking is SCARY stuff. EVERY CITY, COUNTY, STATE and the NATION needs to be wary and guard against the possibility of electronic intrusion in our election process.

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#Chris Cuomo

Presidential Peril


I recall watching many westerns and detective programs on TV where criminals believed in their own innocence and righteousness. They could justify why they took the law into their own hands to achieve social justice or their own objectives be it land grabbing from innocent farmers or a revenge killing.

Now we have a former empire state prosecutor using the permission of the sitting president of the United States to “defend his client” in the Ukraine? More likely, according to the testimony of several credible top-level career officials, it was to persuade a the newly elected president of a nation under attack, the Ukraine, from a hostile neighbor, Russia, to investigate a political rival in exchange for releasing tax payer paid and congressionally approved military aid and an important sit down meeting in the US White House (to show US support). This is political and social extortion at the highest level of the US Executive Branch of government.

Millions of US dollars of military aid was deliberately stalled until the Ukrainian president could support the US presidents need to “dig up dirt” on his potential electoral political rival, even it it did not exist. This was all concocted to create any false campaign narrative in a desperate attempt to win re-election in 2020.

Of course, I am referring to Mr Rudy Giuliani, also former mayor of New York City during the 9-11 attack, US President Trump with his perverted sense of transparency, the integrity of Hunter Biden and therefor his father Joe Biden. Donald Trump thought that he could create a narrative of political corruption and favoritism. All of which fell apart very quickly. —Let us not forget the favoritism, shown to Donald Trump’s sons Don Jr. and Eric ostensibly running the Trump Corporation, and his daughter Ivanka and Jared Kushner, who office in the White House. Have any of these used their position for economic gain? Ivanka still runs her clothing line (and Trump ties) currently being manufactured in the Peoples Republic of China.

Meanwhile Jared Kushner is trying to bring peace to the Middle East while meeting with Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, also traveling to Quatar and Kuwait for some negotiations of what? Arms, capital financing, favors. And let us not forget that no rebuke was ever given to MBS for murdering Saudi-American journalist Jamal Khashoggi, in Turkey most likely with the collaborative eye and tacit permission of Turkish President Erdogan.

This is the same Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that Trump called the day before he ordered American troops out of Syria and is now invited to the White House. The same man who has subverted democracy in Turkey to consolidate power in his own hands. The same man who is buying major arms systems from Russia. Has Turkey, a NATO member, gone rogue? Good Reasons to invite Erdogan to visit the Trump White House?

Now Turkish and Russian troops have taken over northern Syria. Our Kurdish allies, whose intelligence gave the US the location of the ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, The same Kurds who fought the ground battle for the US troops and sacrificed 11,000 lives, 20,000 wounded to defeat ISIS, our military partners, who must now flee their homes for fear of death over an ancient fight with Turkey.

Who wins in this withdrawal strategy? 1. Syria, 2. Turkey and 3. Russia, who now is the new major military and political power in the Middle East. What a gift to Putin. The US has now sent troops to protect Syria’s oilfields from ISIS.  These Syrian Oilfields were once protected by the Kurds.. The Syrians and their protector, the Russians may have something to say about this US presence. This US action has no clear military direction or allied support.

What is the true US policy and direction in the Ukraine, with Turkey and Russia?  How is that all working? Apparently the US Department of State has been deliberately kept out of the loop for much of this diplomacy. Where is Secretary Pompeo in all of this? We have witnessed Trump diplomacy with his favorite dictators: Kim, Putin, Erdogan and Chairman Chi. Call it Trumpian diplomacy. Diplomacy from the White House that is totally ego-centered and perverted by power. Power corrupts. Those who do not want to uphold the Law of the Land, the US Constitution, and the democratic will of Congress will be subject to consequences. The Impeachment inquiry is getting serious.

Conclusion: Faux paus in the Ukraine, Syria, his Russian business relations, Russian election interference in 2016, failed North Korean negations , China Trade War, business lawsuits, years of tax evasion, six bankruptcies, not to mention his personal affairs (not including his second wife), groppings, payoffs, NDA agreements this is the world of Donald Trump. His level of OBSTRUCTION has become monstrous in proportion when you combine his personal and political life. Why? What does does Trump have to hide?This president has little, if any, integrity, honor, or morality. His mendacity is matched only by his awkward demand for loyalty, when he is the least loyal individual in his own administration. He is only shows fake loyalty when he can leverage it in his favor. The only reality he knows is the one he fabricates for his own protection or aggrandizement like when he puffs out his chest and proclaims his own genius. He has lied to himself and all others in his sphere of influence. Those who kowtow to his persona, will eventually fall away when the truth is revealed.

I believe that President Trumps does operate out of his own created reality. This has resulted in many political distortions, almost all on his Republican followers. Who is determining the correct course for this country? —The USA will become a perverse shadow of a true democratic republic if this Trumpian trend is unchallenged. Donald Trump is an unprecedented threat to the USA and to the world. Perhaps, Trump is an unwitting pawn to the global political mechanizations of Russian President Putin. President Putin is an adversary, who is not above using “compromat”*or any other tool in his quiver to shift global power in favor of Russia (and possibly reconstituting the USSR). Putin has a longbow to target his objectives, Trump is asking for favors. Putin is playing three-dimensional global chess, while President Trump is still playing one- dimensional checkers.

Reference*FREE Penthouse, Part II, The Ringmaster.
Also:
FREE Penthouse, Parts 1-10

freepenthouse@blogspot.com

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Crises in the Middle East

Donald Trump is the one most self-centered, egotistical and senseless leader since some previous 20th century petulant dictators. Clever in their own way of manipulating the public and their core (one-dimensional intellect) following. But shrewd in orchestrating their own will. Donald Trump will take a win for himself and blame others for poor outcomes. He prefers to admire current dictators like Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, or Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. Self-agrandisement is paramount, all else is periphery.

Now it is becoming a global crises affecting mostly the Middle East.
This entire crisis was created by Trump and his advisors like John Bolton. Iran’s government isn’t trustworthy in can be brutal, sponsors terrorist organizations such as the PLO and Hezbollah, however, there are many worse governments such as Saudi Arabia or North Korea of which Trump encourages the Republicans in Congress to support. Iran was complying with its obligations under the nuclear deal. Until Trump found unsupported reason to abandon a treaty agreed to by 18 other nations.

An example of Saudi Arabia’s brutality is the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, who became a “sacrificial animal” for criticizing Saudi Arabian rulers, and Trump says nothing. (Despite proof Saudi Crown Prince ordered and monitored the murder, dismemberment and acid bath for Khashoggi!) Saudi Arabia commits war atrocities daily in Yemen killing million of Yemeni residents with American weapons and President Trump sends his most trusted Middle East advisor, Jared Kushner to Saudi Arabia.

Kushner, then underwrites and sanctions the sale with Saudi Prince crown price MBS for at least $68.2 BILLIONS worth of deals for firearms, the latest F-35 fighters, missiles, bombs, weapon systems, and military training with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates since the start of their war in Yemen – billions more than previously reported more weapons ( allegedly for self defense) and possible nuclear capability is also in the offering to the Saudi’s for a price.  —-How about a billion dollar Trump Tower hotel/condo complex in Riyadh? Military supremacy in the Middle East, in exchange for a refinancing of all Trump Organization loans through the Deutsche bank at 3%?

It appears that Saudi Arabia is gearing up for war with American support. 
The majority Sunni muslims, who chose Mohammed’s father-in- law, Abu, as their first caliph, have never liked the minority Shiite muslims. The Shi’a Muslims chose Mohammed’s cousin and son-in law, Ali, wed to Mohammed’s daughter Fatimah, to lead their religion. It was a choice in religious leadership opinion that led to a difference of religious following, that led to many bloody encounters, beheadings and hatred since the year 632 AD.

This entire crisis was invented by Donald Trump, Jared Kushner and Crown Prince MLS and their advisers. Iran’s government is brutal and awful, they sponsor western terrorism and a war in Yemen, but there are plenty of brutal and awful governments. Iran was complying with its obligations under the nuclear deal. A deal that supported peace in the Middle East for 25 years.
Iran is now being pushed into more ill will toward the USA. First, with Donald Trump’s cancellation of the Iran Nuclear Agreement, to increased financial sanctions focused on Iran’s leadership. Not that it would provide that much leverage at this point, but it is the principle It is becoming a dangerous game. Now with the latest drone shooting, proof should be self evident and a reason to escalate negotiations or hostility. The Iran is the last Shi’a muslim stronghold. The majority in Saudi Arabia are Sunni Muslims.

With the Muslim world split in many areas in the Middle East, we are looking at such potential violent chaos involving all countries in the Middle East, The USA and Europe. If you thought that what happened in Syria was a disaster in US policy and the actions of another Trump-like leader, President Bashar al-Assad, displacing thousands of his own people, bombing and gassing his own population, that will seem like a prelude to what may be coming. Like Syria, Iran is also partnered with Russia for arms procurement. Will Putin’s and political interests with Iran cause him to clandestinely influence Trump financially or with the “Pee tapes?”
President Trump has (perhaps unwittingly) lit an almost 1400 year old fuse to support the powder keg created by this Shi’a Muslim—Sunni Muslim BLOOD FUED. Saudi Arabia and Iran are the principle combatants. Now Saudi Arabia has gotten the USA involved. Will Iran get its allies and proxies militarily involved?

It will continue with acrimonious comments and tweets, Then possibly a tit-for-tat attacks such as in the Straits of Hormuz to interfere with the shipment of oil. Proxy attacks may occur. Hezbollah may launch rockets toward Israel. The militant side of the PLO could invade Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Missiles could be fired from Iran toward Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. How many sleeper jihadists are there in the US? This is just speculation. Israel has an overwhelming defense force to be reckoned with. The US military is much more powerful than any force in the Middle East. But why risk all this possible chaos and bloodshed?

Recently Iran President Rouhani spoke to his Cabinet in Tehran "Our advice to Europe and the United States is to go back to logic and to the negotiating table. Go back to understanding, to respecting the law and resolutions of the U.N. Security Council. Under those conditions, all of us can abide by the nuclear deal."

This sounds like a possible reset, but no reset will take place because that is not Donald’s Trump’s objective. What then is his objective?

Regime Change in Iran. 
Both Donald Trump and the Crown Prince MBS of Saudi Arabia want to change the government in Iran to one that is more friendly and controllable. Regime change was thought to be an outmoded and abhorrent form of invasive military influences practiced primarily by the USA and Russia in the mid twentieth century. It is now back.

What does Israel think? How will Europe react? Will Russia get militarily involved on the side of Syria and Iran? Will The United Nations Security Council have a voice? Will China refrain from involvement?

Armageddon may be coming to the Middle East.

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The Truth About North Korea

North Korea is an interesting conundrum. The three Kim leaders have always wanted to maintain their dynasty through military strength, yet court the West for strategic and economic reasons. Recently, President Trump revealed to the FBI that he prefers to trust the intelligence from President Putin, who apparently told President Trump that North Korea wants to disarm and have the banking and trade sanctions removed. While the US national and military intelligence community experts are concluding from satellite images that Kim is moving his nuclear weapons development and arsenal underground.

Is a real peace agreement following the Korean War with North Korea an option or an opportunity? —And an opportunity for whom? A modern little history courtesy of Wikipedia.
“The modern history of North Korea began at the end of World War II in 1945. The surrender of Japan led to the division of Korea at the 38th parallel, with the Soviet Union occupying the north, and the United States occupying the south. The Soviet Union and the United States failed to agree on a way to unify the country, and in 1948 they established two separate governments – the Communist-aligned Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Western-aligned Republic of Korea – each claiming to be the legitimate government of all of Korea.

In 1950 the Korean War broke out. After much destruction, the war ended with a stalemate. The division at the 38th parallel was replaced by the Korean Demilitarized Zone. Tension between the two sides continued. Out of the rubble North Korea built an industrialized command economy.”
Prior to the fall of the USSR, North Korea maintained a strong relationship with the Russian leaders. North Korea, Kim Il-sung believed in an independent course for the people of North Korea. Self-reliance and a strong military self-defense system. Kim Jong-Il succeeded his father in 1994. He needed to build an economy that was in severe crises and feeling very insecure created an enormous military army presence in case of an invasion or to attack the South Korea. He began a missile program. Kim Jung-un then succeeded his father and continued his missile program adding nuclear capability.

The opinion of several leading analysts of North Korea regarding Pyongyang’s strategic intentions are surveyed and examined.  All of the analysts concur on a number of conclusions: (1) that the North Korean regime is not irrational; (2) this rationality leaves North Korea’s leadership with a heightened sense of insecurity; (3) North Korea’s rulers―or at least some of them―appear to be acutely aware of the economic reform dilemma they face. They need international support to improve economically, from Russia China and now the US might be a possibility Kim regime may have far more ambitious intentions. A conceivable possibility is that Kim’s intentions are a policy of economic reform and opening, and pursuing some form of peaceful relations with Seoul. However, Kim’s policies, planning and actions do not agree with his platitudes. A real possibility is that North Korea’s key strategic goals are to build up its WMD programs,

With the United States out of the picture, North Korea thinks it could relatively easily bring about the collapse of the South Korea and achieve unification by military coercion. North Korea’s rulers are influenced by history, communist ideology, and ideals of nationalism.

Then in 2018, Kim began a charm offensive that included appearing to suspend his nuclear weapon and ballistic missile tests. Through South Korea, Kim asked for a summit meeting with President Donald Trump to negotiate the details.

While Kim’s offers gave the U.S. government sufficient hope to take part in the requested summit meeting, Kim then failed to deliver either denuclearization or plans for it.

Before the summit, Kim ordered the building of more powerful nuclear weapons, weapons that may be five to ten times more destructive than earlier North Korea designs. He also allegedly improved missile bases and missile capability. Then, shortly after the summit, Kim apparently, requested more fuel for nuclear weapons and the continued production of ballistic missiles. These far more powerful weapons may allow North Korea to double the destructive power of its nuclear weapon forces during Kim’s year of peaceful negotiation in 2018, by claiming denuclearization.

Kim’s behavior has experts on Korea question what Kim is doing. Is Kim simply being cautious, waiting to win over hard-liners in North Korea (and if so, what does that say about his control of North Korea)? Or is he just a hard bargainer, trying to get the best deal possible from President Trump? Or is Kim diverting world attention, trying to complete a longer range nuclear missile that will threaten the United States before the United States takes serious actions to stop him?

It is time for the United States to begin testing Kim Jong-un.  He needs to show sincerity about abandoning his nuclear weapon program, steps could be taken demonstrate his peaceful intentions. The United States could further define the meaning of nuclear weapon dismantlement and solicit China’s help in getting appropriate North Korean action to avoid serious consequences. I am more inclined to believe the many US seasoned and experienced military, national and global security analysts. However, if Kim shows that he is just stalling, manipulating Donald Trump as I believe he is, then we must relearn to distrust Kim, Vladimir Putin, whom I refer to in my articles. “FREE Penthouse, Part II” as the “Ringmaster of geo-political chaos” for bad advice and just believe that Trump is naive, ignorant or worse. Kim has out manipulated Donald Trump once already. Trump is definitely not the great deal maker he professes to be.

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The Truth about Trading with China

Working with the Chinese, I found to be one of the most difficult transactions of my career in international business. In 1970, President Nixon went to China to open up the PRC to international trade. More importantly, China was seen as a huge market for US Made products, and an incredible source for cheap labor to benefit US companies. However, instead of traditional bargaining the PRC turned into a giant juggernaut utilizing one-way trading for its own benefit. The PRC does want to trade, but only on their terms. The PRC government bought US products and allowed foreign manufacturing, but only if the PRC maintained controlling interest in any joint-venture. They also took foreign products and placed governmental priority and money in replicating those foreign products. Sometimes resorting to hacking as in the case of Boeing or allowing copyright infringements without any penalties until some foreign company complained.

Just a little background. In my career in international business, I have had the privilege of working with some great people. Working for several companies, I gave thousands of quotes for US manufactured products and negotiated with many foreign nationals. In the USA, when we speak of purchasing or selling negotiations there is usually one representative from each company, two people, but no more than four people, sitting at a conference room table, with thoughts about products, price, quantities, delivery, freight and insurance from warehouse to warehouse. An amicable agreement is met with possibilities of an ongoing relationship. For that reason a win-win compromise is reached and sometimes an exclusive contract is forged. Both sides benefit, business cards are exchanged, a verbal or written contract is reached.

South Americans are much the same, but less formal.  It is also helpful to know their language, customs and culture, but there is forgiveness if you do not. I was exporting automobile radiators to Argentina. I met the the importing company’s representative in Houston. I was President of the Houston World Trade Association Young Executive Group at the time and there was a private restaurant/bar at the top of the building.

We made a deal over dinner. It was simply automobile radiators, a verbal agreement, freight forwarding documentation settled, payment by sight draft. Again a win-win agreement that satisfied both parties.  Although, I no longer send products to Jose’s, company we remain friends.
Europeans are more formal, usually there are four or five people at the conference table, followed by dinner. It is also helpful to understand their business laws, language, customs and culture. Often business practices may be regulated by the government as in Germany. Europe, because of the higher population density, has more environmental laws than in the USA. An importer for North American made automobile parts and I met to discuss a written contract. This was in Frankfurt, he was interested supplying parts for new and aging US built mustangs, corvettes, jeeps, and a sundry of motorcycle parts. This time five of us discuss products, quantities, pricing, currency exchange rates and delivery Cost Insurance and Freight (CIF) from warehouse or manufacturing plant to their appropriate warehouse. We have a multi-million dollar contract and a win-win agreement was negotiated and understood for future business on both sides. Our payment will be by Letter of Credit, later changed to bank wire, An appreciation is shared, telephone numbers are exchanged for future reference. This type of negotiation can last several days, usually three to five (3-5) days. Shorter if everyone understands the deal in advance. It is a always a win-win agreement.

Japanese businessmen are super cordial and very hospitable if you go to Japan. They make every effort to make you feel welcome. However, business is business and negotiations, though friendly, are always about the best deal. It is good if you have someone on your side from your company that speaks, reads and writes Japanese. At the table there may be two executives from the US and seven to eight Japanese, an executive, an accountant, an engineer, a production manager, a marketer, an interpreter and maybe others. All of them may speak English, but much info all is spoken through the interpreter. The negotiations, for the Japanese, often revert to speaking in Japanese in discussing the content of the deal amongst themselves and how this deal can best work for them. There is no malice, however, it may leave you looking for more information on what they are discussing. Our negotiation for Oil Field equipment lasted six days, they had some labor issues, we had some delivery issues. We finally decided on FOB Port of Los Angeles and sight draft payment. Negotiations were tough, but it was a win-win, profitable for all.

I usually like to open s conversation with a compliment. The Japanese will politely smile, bow and shake your hand (shaking hands is a western custom). The Chinese don’t seem to be on the same wavelength. They are generally looking for a one-time deal (This would be similar with the Russians, although Russians have a sense of humor).  The Chinese are always looking for the advantage, they will bring twenty-six (26) to thirty (30) people to your conference table. They will also go to your competitors and play one against the other for the lowest possible bid price. The Chinese operate from the “I win” principle always.

As an example, when I was a junior executive, the Chinese approached Hydril, a manufacturer of a unique, highly engineered mechanical product called a Blowout Preventer. This is to prevent oil, under extremely high pressure from escaping out of the ground. These blowout preventers may be used on land or in the ocean. In this case the Chinese were looking to build and complete three oil rigs in the South China Sea.

Besides Hydril in Houston, the Chinese also visited Cameron in Houston and Shaffer, in New Orleans. The only three manufacturers of blowout preventers in the world. The specification for six 10,000 psi blowout preventers and additional oil field equipment piping was made. Hydril’s bid was accepted. Then I went back to check the numbers. Hydril was actually losing money on this deal. I renegotiated with our piping supplier to lower his cost by five (5%) percent. That was it. Hydril could possibly break even. It was still up to the transport cost FOB port of Houston. Yet, it was the largest international deal that Hydril had ever made at that time: $3,000,000.
Today, if you check Alibaba, the Chinese manufacturer's internet product showcasing website (think Amazon), you will find blowout preventers for sale. Ten (10) Chinese suppliers have copied the Hydril designs for American engineered blowout preventers. And yes, they have good steel and can sell the blowout preventers at a considerably lower cost.

China, Russia, North Korea all want to use the “I win” strategy of global trade. The end goal for the Chinese government is to economically dominate the world, so that they can globally control their interests. The US balance of trade is already $300,000,000,000. or more in favor of the Chinese. The USA currently (March 2019) owes the Chinese $419,000,000,000. or more plus interest. This is like a limitless credit card, where you keep on charging. It is in their favor because the Chinese government supports this imbalance and Americans are captive to their pricing. The Chinese can afford to peddle their influence, building highways, an electrical and communications systems for African nations in exchange for their minerals and oil. They can afford to buy property and hotels, anywhere they want. They can afford to build military islands on top of coral reefs, with airstrips and missiles in the South China Sea capable of threatening Taiwan and the Philippines.

By 2022 you will be able to buy Chinese cars in the USA. They will be employing the same strategy as Toyota, Honda and Nissan from Japan in the 1960s and South Korean Hyundai in the 1990s, to storm across the Pacific to our shores. #Geely Motors owns Volvo, however, Geely is a private company. There are 20 government supported car companies like Zotye with their T600 compact car that we will soon see in the US. The “Big Six” (which have government backing): SAIC, Beijing First Auto, Dongfeng, Guangzhou, Changan (and Zotye) currently have 66% of Chinese sales, and are waiting in the wings.

On 1 July 1997, Hong Kong was handed over to the People's Republic of China by the United Kingdom. Hong Kong was always a frenzy of western and British influence. One could find all items of clothing and much more readily available for import. Free enterprise was at it best in Hong Kong. However, in 2016, the Chinese government reversed its direction on free enterprise in favor of state controlled business and industry. Today if anyone in Hong Kong boos as the Chinese national anthem is played, they can receive three (3) years in prison.

In 1970 President Nixon opened China as a trading partner and gave the a “Most Favored Nation” status. Giving the US and China advantages such as no trade tariffs or duties on imported goods from the other country. China is still insisting on these terms, but now the balance of trade has totally tilted in their favor. If both sides create new tarrifs, that will mean additional hardship, not only on Midwestern farmers, but it will increase prices for all citizens increasing our cost of living. In addition this will contribute to added inflation and national debt, which is now risen almost $3 trillion dolaars in the last two years to a staggering $22,000,000,000,000. That is $22 trillion in the red, from a positive balance of of several billion dollars in the black in 1998.

This has become a trade war, not with competing industries, but with competing ideologies. Communism vs. Capitalism, a government controlled state economy vs. a people/citizen directed free enterprise economy. Should a western corporation wish to establish a plant in China, the Chinese government insists on at least fifty-one percent (51%) ownership more majority stake, with all engineering, R & D, and management shared with the Chinese management loyal to their government administrators. Also remember, China is a country armed with Russian nuclear weapon technology. Not that a nuclear conflict could be immenent, but China is THE nuclear power in the region and can defend its territorial interests. Hopefully, we are not heading for a showdown and can mutually negotiate our differences.

Personally, I would prefer to work with countries that need our business to build their infrastructure like Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, South East Asia and South America when ever possible. The key to building a relationship with factories, industries, governments and regional economies is mutual respect. To counter cheap Chinese labor, the USA should use its regional advantage to build economic relationships, factories in Mexico, Central and South America. The USA should also be strongly supporting democratic countries that believe in free enterprise throughout our the world.

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Tex-Mex Trade since the #USMCA

#Tex-Mex Trade and the advantages for Mexico in the New Trade agreement.

I live in Texas. I remember hauling my SCUBA gear down to Del Rio. Lake Amistad, which separates the US and Mexico with no wall in between, just patrol boats. (It is hard to build a wall in the middle of a lake.) Not unusual, we went as a small group across the border for the evening, parked our SUV to dine at a local restaurant/dinner theater. Our entertainment for that evening was “the Mexican Elvis” who belted out Elvis tunes. One could close ones eyes and think one was in Las Vegas, but we were in Acuna, Mexico. With just one’s driver’s license for ID, border crossings have always been non eventful. After all Texas was once a part of Mexico.

There is also the human aspect of trade with Mexico. A good portion of the Texas economy is dependent on trade with Mexico. Daily thousands of middle class and upper middle class Mexicans come to the USA to shop and purchase products at Best Buy, JC Penney, Target and many malls, often dropping thousands of US dollars (with Texas Sales Tax).

To support the Mexican government and it people, the #Mexican Peso has been dropping in value for over a year. American goods and services are more expensive with the current exchange rate in Mexico. It is much less expensive for Mexican citizens to buy their products in Texas, USA. That is why they are vacationing and buying in Texas. Does this also means that Mexican products, services and labor are going to be less expensive? As our third largest trading partner, Mexico. Will slightly lower costs and reap the extra dollars for its own economy. It needs to raise the standard of living with better health care services and more employment for all its people.

#The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement #(USMCA), Trump forced Canada and Mexico to renegotiate the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, which underpins $1.2 trillion of regional trade, because he said the existing pact encouraged U.S. companies to move jobs to low-wage Mexico.  If they are going to do it in North America, where are they going to do it? The cheapest place is Mexico. ---There is salary component, which does not exist in NAFTA, it was designed to bring more factories into the United States and Canada. However, salaries to be paid to management, research and engineering workers would be more price competetive in any factory work bid by Mexican factories. In fact entire factories could be built and operated at lower costs in Mexico.

Volkswagens have been manufactured in Mexico since about 1960. Automotive parts, machinery, produce, clothing and more more products are brought to the US via the border crossings manned by our customs agents and border patrol with drug sniffing dogs. North American trade is very interdependent. Bargaining for a better trade position is actually counterproductive. It is better to have a free flow of goods and services where the US can benefit from lower labor costs in Mexico. This was the purpose of NAFTA. Things do change and occasionally need to be renegotiated. However, what is the point of throwing out what works.

Some statistics:

#U.S.-Mexico Trade Facts, Office of the US Trade Representative

U.S. goods and services trade with Mexico totaled an estimated $615.9 billion in 2017. Exports to Mexico were $276.2 billion; imports were from Mexico $339.8 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with Mexico was $63.6 billion in 2017.

Trade is also increasing to both Canada and Mexico, while The U.S. data also reports a $17.1 billion goods deficit with Canada in 2017, and a $71 billion goods deficit with Mexico. Both countries, however, reported substantially larger U.S. goods surpluses in the same relationship. In 2017, Canada reported a $97.7 billion surplus, and Mexico a $132.4 billion surplus.

Mexico is currently our 3rd largest goods trading partner. According to the Department of Commerce, U.S. exports of Goods and Services to Mexico supported an estimated 1.2 million US jobs in 2015 (latest data available) (968 thousand supported by goods exports and 201 thousand supported by services exports).

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#Walled In

Today, my wife asked me, “Why doesn’t Congress just solve two problems with one initiative? —Kill two birds with one stone.—Make the Chinese Trade War disappear and contract out the construction of a border wall. All with one stroke of the pen. Just ask the Chinese to build the Great Wall of Trump along the border of Mexico.”

Yes, it sounds preposterous and unrealistic, but no more realistic than adding to the existent 649 miles of fencing created by George W. Bush (43), who signed the #Secure Fence Act of 2006. Which secured all the critical areas of the border. However, from fiscal year 2010 through fiscal year 2015, the U.S.-Mexico border fence had been breached 9,287 times, at an average cost of $784 per breach to repair. People also used ladders, ropes and tunnels to circumvent the barrier. Some Mexicans swam the Rio Grande only to arrive at many miles of dessert and faced dehydration until they were rescued by the border patrol.

Agreed there are also some bad actors, most drug dealers, they have also used tunnels, submarines, public and private airplanes and helicopters, cargo ships. The vast majority of illegal drugs (an estimated 90%) come in through our sea and airports. In actuality our US-Mexico border crossings are well secured. Customs and border agents, drug dogs, electronic surveillance create a good net to catch and seize most drug and human trafficking.

Technology is the better answer to detect illegal border crossings. Tunnels can be detected using ground penetrating radar. Surveillance can be added with cameras and drones.  Helicopter support over the desert regions is imperative. Most of this was put in place by Obama, "The Deporter in Chief"who humanely deported approximately 300,000 illegal aliens annually from Mexico than any previous president (and twice as much as President Trump.) However, currently 12,000 immigrant minors are still being held in detention.

The Republican Party's 2012 platform called upon the "double-layered fencing.” Alright, but at what cost. I have heard estimates from $4.1 Billion to $50 Billion for a 55 foot 2000 mile wall. Like my wife said the Chinese are good at building walls, but the US tax payer is going to pay for something that is of questionable necessity with current available and future technology. That money could be better spent on infrastructure, education, and disaster relief.

The US also needs to place more effort in utilizing North American resources and working with governments in this hemisphere to solve problems. Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador have economic and political problems. Perhaps create a political alliances with those countries and a limited Marshall Plan to boost local economies would retain more of their people, who would rather make a good living in the place where they were born. And if gangs are a problem, lend those countries some of our police force as consultants. We need to solve the root cause and invest in alliances not build a wall to protect our differences. Meanwhile, the US could build a facility in Mexico that would enhance the facilitation of legitimate asylum seekers instead of criminalizing them.

Last February 2018, #Senator John McCain introduced a bill with bipartisan support, a coalition Democrats and Republican liked this bill. This bill offered $25 Billion as a package to build border fencing, strengthen border security, provide for immigration reform and provide amnesty for "Dreamers" (DACA), about 12 million individuals who were born in Mexico, but were brought up in the USA, educated in the USA, and often served in the US military. At the time it was rejected by resident Trump.

At this point, I believe that the White House needs to be figuratively Walled In. Constrained by the opinion of the people, the Congress and the Department of Justice. Our priority should be in getting the government running again. 35 government agencies, 800,000 loyal government employees, some of which could lose their homes, are at risk. The American public is at risk as The US Border patrol, TSA, and other parts of Homeland Security, Air Traffic Controllers, the Treasury Department (IRS and FBI), Housing and Urban Development, the FDA the Veterans Administration are all affected. ---The Trump Border wall MUST be considered and evaluated as a separate issue. Too many people, the elderly, farmers are feeling the ripple effect of this massive government shutdown.

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The Road to Geo Chaos 

 

#Secretary of Defense James Mattis, a four star marine general with 50 years of military and government service to his country has resigned. While this might seem inconsequential it is not.  He was a stand for working with our NATO allies and confronting our enemies. During Operation Desert Storm the US worked with 70 (including Russia, thanks to George H W Bush, 41) other countries to oppose Sadam Hussein. Now the US is alone in its military decision making. Who is in charge? Can we trust Vladimir Putin, the chess master?

This is a geo-political chess game. The Russians are masters at geo-political chess. Now the mantel has fallen to Vladimir Putin. His worst nightmare came in 1989 when the USSR crashed due to western economic pressure. The USSR lost all of its dominance over other countries and peoples. Who were they? A little history.

In March 1941, Josef Stalin had accepted about $130,000,000,000.00 (appx. $2 trillion in today's money, some of it repaid) from the US, Canada and UK in food, materials, American steel, sheet metal, artillery guns, and more under the Lend Lease Program, to start an Eastern Front to confront German aggression into Poland and Russia. Hitler’s German troops wearing Summer uniforms were defeated by the severely harsh Russian Winter.  Stalin, armed his troops with US money, built tanks and howitzers and drove westward taking the people, their governments and cultures of several countries.

Since 1945, a Cold War was initiated by Stalin, an Iron Curtain went up to separate the countries called the Western Alliance that now included West Germany. The Baltic countries, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Eastern Germany, were held hostage and Stalin created the created the Iron Curtain, behind which was the USSR. A great coup for Stalin. Not so much for Eastern Europe. The Cold War, the risk of nuclear mutual annihilation ensued.

Additional changes were made to the Soviet Union group throughout the year, until the final group was announced in 1956. By then, 15 countries were annexed by Russia and became part of the USSR: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Russia was the most powerful of all the republics, and the one maintaining control over the territory and the main political decisions. The thirst for power and control perhaps started by Catherine the Great, then but continued with Lenin, Stalin and now Putin.

Back to the present. I ask again can Vladimir Putin be trusted. Today he stated the “Donald is doing the right thing” in removing US troops from Syria. Also, it no secret that Putin feels it his destiny and duty to reestablish the glory of the USSR. While Donald was playing Monopoly, building his failed casinos in Atlantic City, Putin's initiated his first chess move, he started with building up his own military. Then his second chess move in 2014, lost in 1856 following Crimean War, the reclaiming of port and shipyard of Sevastopol in the Crimea, (Catherine the Great's warm Black Sea southern port for the Russian navy.)

After 2009, after six (6) US bankruptcies The Trump Organization was desperate for money to maintain his empire and for expansion borrowed lots of money from Russian Banks that Putin has influence over. Putin's third chess move, a reversed Lend Lease program with the #Trump Organization. However, with the Russian banks holding the notes for many of his properties including very possibly, the Trump Tower in New York. Perhaps, #The Trump Organization. may even have been persuaded to do some money laundering through the Russian Real Estate Firm located just below the Russian Bank, which is just below the Trump Corporation in the New York Trump Tower. Putin’s fourth chess move, support Donald Trump in the 2016 election. Then Putin could influence American Presidential decision making in his favor. With geo-political disruption to distract the West, Putin would have less opposition to his ambitions.

Perhaps Putin was thinking that with a weakened NATO and the US looking the other way no longer supporting NATO. He could take the rest of the Ukraine. Also, with the US out of Syria he could create chaos in the Middle East. Syria has become part of the Russian sphere of influence with Bashar as its puppet dictator. This would allow Iran greater influence in Syria and threaten Israel within a matter of years.

Not only is pulling our troops of #Syria a military strategic folly, but like in Iraq, it will give ISIS, with a current estimated army of 20-30,000, a chance to regroup and threaten Iraq and the rest of the world. —It is also an extraordinary betrayal of the Syrian and Kurdish people. The often violent and radical dictator “President” Erdogan of Turkey (whom Trump admires)will be able to wipe out his Kurdish opposition. The same Kurdish people who fought so hard to support the US in fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria. This will be the third time that the US has betrayed the Kurds. This is also a betrayal of our NATO and regional allies. The US will also be drawing down troops in Afghanistan, allowing the Taliban and ISIS to grow and again topple the Afghani government. These actions are being taken without any NATO, Pentagon, or consultation with regional allies. We can not be globally, indifferent.

That would be geo-politically and militarily ruinous to any future collaboration.
President Trump has not been taking advice from the Secretary of Defense or the Pentagon. President Trump is giving free hand to Russia in Syria and Iran’s shiite nation.

Global chaos starting in the Middle East could be with us in a matter of two years. With Defense Secretary James Mattis leaving, a voice of reason will be absent. With John Kelly Leaving there is no limit to President Trumps whims based on “his gut” or the advice of the only global leader he is willing to give respect, Vladimir Putin. The   only conclusion that can be reached is that President Trump has been compromised.  With Mattis and Kelly gone, both the left and right rails beneath the Trump train of the Executive Branch of government have fallen off. Do you trust Putin?  Do you trust Trump? SUPPORT #ROBERT MUELLER, WE NEED TO KNOW ALL THE FACTS.

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The State of the Union

I am tired of this great country having partisan middle school mindset about its politics and actions, name calling, exaggerated hyperbole, divisiveness, and intentional misinformation produced by the puerile consciousness of mainly one man.

Hopefully the past election will change the make-up and nature of present past politics. This country needs professional statesmanship, common sense, and humanitarian governance. Myopic national office holders should be a way of the past. The United States of America needs real dedicated patriotic, informed leadership.

It should not matter if one is a Republican, Democrat or Independent. Democratic governance in a Republic should be a cooperative dialectic process. A process where the people have a non-gerrymandered choice of their elected representatives in Congress. And Congress can work cooperatively among themselves and with an Executive Branch on behalf of all the people.
Congress should be as intended in the US Constitution a law making body that finds the better solution to social, economical, financial, health care and environmental issues.

During the Clinton Administration our country has run askew of these principles. Political party bickering has cost this country global respect, caused a recession in 2008, blocked budget confirmations, and much more. The Clinton administration left this country in the black, financially solid. Several Middle East wars later, and poor economic policy drowned the US in debt. Poor regulatory money management in an impending economic crises caused a recession. Fortunately, good economic policy under Obama led to a recovery.

However, once again, poor, myopic economic policy is starting to drain the fiscal life blood out this once great country. China own our debt, international trade, health care costs, and financial stress, are causing citizens to suffer. Our lives may be currently acceptable, but I fear, rising costs, increased poverty among millennials, retired middle class and home bound veterans. Inflation is coming.

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My thought on the current State of the Union.

 

Paradise, California:

Our Planet is burning

Paradise, California, reduced to ash in deadly wildfire, was everything its name implies: charming, friendly and historic. Two of my best friends lived in Paradise since 1965, nestled in a valley between the Sierra Nevada and Coastal mountain ranges.

Here is a published article by the Associated Press.

By MARTHA MENDOZA - Associated Press

Friday, November 16th 2018, 09:56 am EDT

PARADISE, Calif. (AP) — There's a sweet legend about this town: On a blazing summer day in the 1850s, a lumber mill crew with wagon and ox took a break under a grove of tall evergreens. The air was cool, the pine needles fragrant. "Boys," said the team boss, "this is paradise."
Thus, more than 170 years ago, Paradise was born. From the start, it was enriched with gold mined from nearby hills and lumber harvested from the forests. Over generations, thousands lived and loved here; they built homes and businesses, schools and houses of worship, parks and museums that proudly honored Paradise's place in American history. In a matter of hours last week, it all disappeared.

Nearly 9,000 homes. Hundreds of shops and other buildings. The Safeway supermarket. The hardware store. The Dolly-O-Donuts & Gifts, where locals started their day with a blueberry fritter and a quick bit of gossip.

This town of 27,000 literally went up in smoke in the deadliest, most destructive wildfire in California history. The death toll, for now, is 63, but many more are missing. And memories are all that's left for many of the survivors.

Driving past the smoldering ruins of downtown, Patrick Knuthson, a 49-year-old, fourth-generation local, struggled to make sense of what he was seeing. He pointed out places that once were, and were no more: a saloon-style pub, his favorite Mexican restaurant, a classic California motel, the pawn shop, a real estate office, a liquor store, the thrift center and auto repair shop, the remodeled Jack in the Box burger outlet, entire trailer parks.

At the ruined Gold Nugget Museum, the ground was crunchy and hot, a few birds chirped nearby, and a half dozen soot-covered deer stood eerily still under a blackened tree.
Paradise was a town where families put down roots, and visitors opted to stay. Children could bike to the park, go fishing in the town pond, shoot bows and arrows at the nearby archery range. As they got older, they'd kayak in the canyons or hike in the forests after school.

"We could tell the kids to go outside and play, and be back when the street lights come on," said Kaitlin Norton, whose uncle is still missing. She does not know if her home still stands.
Like all places, Paradise had problems. There were issues with addiction and poverty, but residents felt safe. And while prices were rising, it was still affordable for many in a state where housing costs have soared.

"You would never miss a meal here," said Terry Prill, 63, who often sought lunch and dinner at community churches. "The people are good people. They don't look down at you."
The pace was relaxed. Neighbors waved to each other in the morning, shouting hello as they headed off to work on tree-lined, winding streets and cul-de-sacs. Families kept tidy gardens and planted vegetables, trading their bounty up and down the block.

Louise Branch, 93, says Paradise was a lovely place to retire. "It's a slow town, really. People have yards and dogs," she said. "I especially liked it in the fall when the trees are full of color."
Parks burst with bright orange California poppies and wildflowers in the spring, and soften with light snow in the winter. At 2,500 feet, on a ridge that rises above deep canyons carved by the Feather River and Butte Creek, Paradise offers cool respite from hot, dry weather in the valleys below.
Spanning the creek was the Honey Run Covered Bridge, built in 1886. It was put on the National Register of Historic Places in 1988 and was the only covered bridge in America with three unequal sections. It, too, is gone.

Glenn Harrington raised two sons in Paradise. He found it so picturesque he started the Visions of Paradise page on Facebook; image after image chronicles the town's history and spirit, its seasonal colors and its many festivals.

Each spring there were Gold Nugget Days, marking the discovery of a 54-pound lump in 1859. The Donkey Derby in nearby Old Magalia would get silly, as locals recreated how miners heaved the famous chunk of gold into town. The highlight was a parade of homemade floats.

"My daughter's going out for the Gold Nugget Queen this year," said Krystin Harvey, whose mobile home burned down. "Well, it's been going for 100 years, but we don't know — there's no town now."
In the fall they'd celebrate Johnny Appleseed days, gathering at the recreation center for a crafts fair and games. This is when Paradisians would feast on more than 1,000 pies baked with fruit from Noble Orchards, a nearly century-old farm on Paradise Ridge where trees were heavy with cherries, nectarines, pluots and 17 varieties of apples.

"Paradise is everything the name implies," said Tom Hurst, 67, who grew up there and raised horses at his 7-acre Outlaw's Roost ranch. He has relatives in the local cemetery dating back to the early 1900s, and he refuses to talk about the town in the past tense. In fact, some buildings still stand, among them the town hall, the 750-seat performing arts center, the Feather River Hospital, its newer sections damaged but intact.

"Don't use the word 'was,' use the word 'is,' because we ain't done, we're just getting restarted," Hurst said.  And yet, there's so much to mourn.

A month ago, the Paradise Symphony was rehearsing for the local "Nutcracker" ballet, and kids were pulling out their skates as the outdoor ice rink was set to open for the winter. The Paradise Post reported that fifth graders were building cardboard arcade games, and warned of backyard bats with rabies.

Now, crews search for live power lines and gas leaks. Rescue teams continue to pull human remains from cars and homes. Fire crews tamp out smoking piles, and a heavy layer of gray-brown haze hangs over the town.

The toxic, smoky air is a visceral reminder of what's missing in this place where the skies were so blue by day, and dark by night.

"The most cherished thing for me about Paradise were the summer nights my mother and I would sit out on the porch under the clear, starry night," said Harold Taylor, who moved to Paradise eight years ago, caring for his mother until she died.

Patrick Knuthson said visitors always were amazed by the glittering stars and the meteor showers, brilliant streaks of light that shot across the summer skies.

"We used to tell people all the time, 'We made sure to turn all of them on for you,' " he said. "It's going to take a long time to get that back."
___
Associated Press journalists Jocelyn Gecker contributed from San Francisco and Gillian Flaccus contributed from Paradise.
___

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Armistice Day 1918-2019

President Macron of France brought up an interesting contrast between Nationalism and Patriotism during his Armistice Day centennial speech. Wold War I was to be the Great War to End all Wars. It was horrific for the men on the battlefield, being exposed to bombing, grenades, machine gun fire, poison gasses and intense weather while enduring trench warfare. France lost 10% of its mostly male population.

“Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism,” Macron said. “By saying, ‘Our interests first, who cares about the others,’ we erase what a nation holds dearest, what gives it life, what gives it grace and what is essential: its moral values.”

After analyzing several dictionary definitions from Webster, Cambridge, Wikileaks, etc., I am endorsing these definitions of nationalism and patriotism:

Nationalism:
"1. Devotion, especially excessive or undiscriminating devotion, to the interests or culture of a particular nation-state.
2. The belief that nations will benefit from acting independently rather than collectively, emphasizing national rather than international goals.
3. The belief that a particular cultural or ethnic group constitutes a distinct people deserving of political self-determination."
Nationalism is at times aggressive as evidenced as a cause for World War I, World War II, the 100 Years War, and the Napoleonic Wars. It created some of the greatest land grabs in history by such notables as: William the Conqueror, The Norman Conquest of England, US President James K. Polk, California and the Spanish held western lands, and Josef Stalin, who created the Union of Socialist Republics out of their participation in World War Two.
Now if you are Norman, Russian or American, you might say that these were great patriots. However, what they accomplished were very self interested wars for their own gain.
Nationalism can also be used to promote an Autocracy. This NOT why the US Constitution was written or what the written words of the US Constitution have constructed. The US Constitution calls for a Balance of Power divided equally by the Three Branches of Government.

Patriotism:
"Unselfish devotion to one’s country, its people, lands and democratic principles of governance." Simple definition and elegant. Although not born in the colonies, the Marquise de Lafayette and Baron von Steuben were American patriots.
I agree with President Macron. Patriotism needs to be lauded. On Armistice Day we should remember the brave souls of the fallen Harlem Hell Fighters, and the Lafayette Escadrille, American and French patriots, allies who fought on french and Belgium soil for the USA, France, England, and all Allied countries.
Nationalism is, in this 21st century, immoral and should be banished as an anachronism.  The seeds of a by gone era of bigotry, social injustice and bloodshed that must be put behind us. Mankind is not served well by sowing discontent among nations and among ourselves. 

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