The Truth About North Korea
North Korea is an interesting conundrum. The three Kim leaders have always wanted to maintain their dynasty through military strength, yet court the West for strategic and economic reasons. Recently, President Trump revealed to the FBI that he prefers to trust the intelligence from President Putin, who apparently told President Trump that North Korea wants to disarm and have the banking and trade sanctions removed. While the US national and military intelligence community experts are concluding from satellite images that Kim is moving his nuclear weapons development and arsenal underground.
Is a real peace agreement following the Korean War with North Korea an option or an opportunity? —And an opportunity for whom? A modern little history courtesy of Wikipedia.
“The modern history of North Korea began at the end of World War II in 1945. The surrender of Japan led to the division of Korea at the 38th parallel, with the Soviet Union occupying the north, and the United States occupying the south. The Soviet Union and the United States failed to agree on a way to unify the country, and in 1948 they established two separate governments – the Communist-aligned Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Western-aligned Republic of Korea – each claiming to be the legitimate government of all of Korea.
In 1950 the Korean War broke out. After much destruction, the war ended with a stalemate. The division at the 38th parallel was replaced by the Korean Demilitarized Zone. Tension between the two sides continued. Out of the rubble North Korea built an industrialized command economy.”
Prior to the fall of the USSR, North Korea maintained a strong relationship with the Russian leaders. North Korea, Kim Il-sung believed in an independent course for the people of North Korea. Self-reliance and a strong military self-defense system. Kim Jong-Il succeeded his father in 1994. He needed to build an economy that was in severe crises and feeling very insecure created an enormous military army presence in case of an invasion or to attack the South Korea. He began a missile program. Kim Jung-un then succeeded his father and continued his missile program adding nuclear capability.
The opinion of several leading analysts of North Korea regarding Pyongyang’s strategic intentions are surveyed and examined. All of the analysts concur on a number of conclusions: (1) that the North Korean regime is not irrational; (2) this rationality leaves North Korea’s leadership with a heightened sense of insecurity; (3) North Korea’s rulers―or at least some of them―appear to be acutely aware of the economic reform dilemma they face. They need international support to improve economically, from Russia China and now the US might be a possibility Kim regime may have far more ambitious intentions. A conceivable possibility is that Kim’s intentions are a policy of economic reform and opening, and pursuing some form of peaceful relations with Seoul. However, Kim’s policies, planning and actions do not agree with his platitudes. A real possibility is that North Korea’s key strategic goals are to build up its WMD programs,
With the United States out of the picture, North Korea thinks it could relatively easily bring about the collapse of the South Korea and achieve unification by military coercion. North Korea’s rulers are influenced by history, communist ideology, and ideals of nationalism.
Then in 2018, Kim began a charm offensive that included appearing to suspend his nuclear weapon and ballistic missile tests. Through South Korea, Kim asked for a summit meeting with President Donald Trump to negotiate the details.
While Kim’s offers gave the U.S. government sufficient hope to take part in the requested summit meeting, Kim then failed to deliver either denuclearization or plans for it.
Before the summit, Kim ordered the building of more powerful nuclear weapons, weapons that may be five to ten times more destructive than earlier North Korea designs. He also allegedly improved missile bases and missile capability. Then, shortly after the summit, Kim apparently, requested more fuel for nuclear weapons and the continued production of ballistic missiles. These far more powerful weapons may allow North Korea to double the destructive power of its nuclear weapon forces during Kim’s year of peaceful negotiation in 2018, by claiming denuclearization.
Kim’s behavior has experts on Korea question what Kim is doing. Is Kim simply being cautious, waiting to win over hard-liners in North Korea (and if so, what does that say about his control of North Korea)? Or is he just a hard bargainer, trying to get the best deal possible from President Trump? Or is Kim diverting world attention, trying to complete a longer range nuclear missile that will threaten the United States before the United States takes serious actions to stop him?
It is time for the United States to begin testing Kim Jong-un. He needs to show sincerity about abandoning his nuclear weapon program, steps could be taken demonstrate his peaceful intentions. The United States could further define the meaning of nuclear weapon dismantlement and solicit China’s help in getting appropriate North Korean action to avoid serious consequences. I am more inclined to believe the many US seasoned and experienced military, national and global security analysts. However, if Kim shows that he is just stalling, manipulating Donald Trump as I believe he is, then we must relearn to distrust Kim, Vladimir Putin, whom I refer to in my articles. “FREE Penthouse, Part II” as the “Ringmaster of geo-political chaos” for bad advice and just believe that Trump is naive, ignorant or worse. Kim has out manipulated Donald Trump once already. Trump is definitely not the great deal maker he professes to be.
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